The Economist 经济学人精读 [31]

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The American economy

Can the Trump boom last?特朗普繁荣会持久么？

#Eva💭说#

特朗普繁荣能持久么？首先，肯定了特朗普繁荣。这是他的实力，但也是他的好运气。特朗普执政以来，不仅仅是美国，全世界的经济扩张也已持续了一年，只不过被他赶上了。问题是，会持久么？美国商业周期已经进入成熟期，影响是双方面的。风险在于，就业市场几乎达到瓶颈，不合时宜的减税政策，美联储紧缩政策的危机等。优势在于，促进投资，进而有助于提升生产力等。总的来说，前景还是乐观的。

#以上，个人总结和理解，欢迎批评指正，欢迎留言讨论#

#有输出才有进步#

再多说几句🎤：

写完这篇Eva快要吐血了，前后差不多编辑了5个多小时(这并不是我的初衷😂)，再加上对国际政治经济一知半解(怪我😔)，再加上对排版的处女座要求(我是一个伪狮子♌️)，再加上今天网速异常的慢(The Internet service was movingat a snail's paceall night😡.at a snail's pace今天的文章中有运用，小编在此现学现卖)，编辑完成后感觉都要飘飘然了。#此处应该有但是# 但是，如果你看完文章，感觉有所收获，小编需要你们的鼓励👏🏻（欢迎分享转发点赞，谢谢大家♥️）

America’s president is not the architect of the economy’s strength[美国总统并不是经济实力的设计师]. But in the short term things will go his way[但在短期内，会按照他的方式发展]

There is often more fakerythantruth in a tweet from President Donald Trump[特朗普推特里的内容通常来讲假事比真事多][好巧不巧昨天摘自NYT【每日一读】那篇推送，就指责了特朗普转发信息不真实的视频，有兴趣请戳：【每日一读】NYT | The real stories behind 3 videos Trump shared].But on one subject he isbroadly[大体上的]right[但是，在一个问题上，他大体上是正确的].America’s economyis in good shape[整装待发][美国经济形势良好].Business confidence is high[商业信心高].Jobs are plentiful[工作岗位充足].Last month non-farm companies added 228,000 workers to their payrolls[上个月，非农企业的在职人员工资表中增加了22.8万名员工].The unemployment rate is 4.1%, the lowest figure for more than a decade[失业率为4.1%，是十多年来的最低点]. The availability of jobs is drawing more of the working-age population into the labour force[充足的工作机会吸引了更多的适龄工作人口进入劳动市场].Wages are growingin real terms[真实地]with some of the biggest gains going to low-paid workers[工资实实在在的增长，其中最大的增长是低收入工人的工资].

Mr Trump over-eggs things, of course[当然，特朗普做的也有点过头]. He claims each good jobs report and each new peak in the S&P 500 as his own achievement[他将每一个优秀的工作报告和每一个S&P500的新高都归结为他自己的成就][标准普尔500（Standard & Poor's 500，S&P 500）简称标普500或史坦普500，是一个由1957年起记录美国股市的平均记录，观察范围达美国的500家上市公司]. In fact, he was lucky in his inheritance[事实上，他是一个幸运的继承人]. The market has risen by 25% since his election, but is up by 195% since 2009[自他上位之后，市场已经上涨了25%，但是自2009年后，已经上涨了195%]. The unemployment rate fell from a peak of 10% to 4.7%under Barack Obama and then to 4.1% on Mr Trump’s watch[奥巴马执政时，失业率从10%的最高点下降到了4.7%，在特朗普执政后，失业率继续下降到了4.1%]. His administration says that a mix ofderegulation[多指经济管制放松]and corporate-tax cuts will spur sustained GDP growth of3%, well above the 2% average of recent years[特朗普政府认为，经济管制放松和企业税的减少将共同刺激GDP持续增长3%，比近年2%的平均水平高出很多]. As the economy approaches full employment, an astonishing pickup in productivity would be needed to accomplish that[随着经济接近充分就业，如果要实现这样的经济目标，需要大幅度的提升生产效率][Full employment充分就业，也称作完全就业，是经济学中的一个假设，指的是除了正常的暂时不就业（比如工作转换等），所有的人都找到合适的职务，没有浪费现象。在充分就业情况下，仍然会存在摩擦性失业和结构性失业。充分就业与一定的失业率并存].

But Trump-bashers overstate their case, too[特朗普反对者也在夸大其词].Theydismiss[摒弃]the optimism of consumers and bossesassentiment[情绪，看法，观点], notsubstance[事实依据][他们将顾客和老板们的乐观归为情绪，而非事实依据].They warn that the stockmarket is dangerously over-valued[他们发出警告，认为股票市场被危险的高估了] and that America’sexpansion, which is in its 102nd month, must soonfalter[衰弱，萎缩][以及，美国经济扩张已经102个月了，将很快衰弱].Yet the economy is not in immediate danger[但是，经济不会马上陷入危机]. And the maturity of the business cyclecuts both ways[利弊互见][商业周期的成熟是把双刃剑].It makes a nonsense of Mr Trump’s claims to be the author of American economicsuccess[这把双刃剑使得特朗普宣称是美国经济成功的书写者是没有意义的].But the economy is also capable of some welcome surprises[但是，也使得经济增长还可以成为令人愉悦的惊喜].

Long in the tooth

America is not the only economy doing well[不止是美国的经济发展不错]. For about a year, asynchronized[同时发生的]global expansion, taking in Europe, Asia and the Americas, has been under way[欧洲，亚洲和美洲的全球经济同步扩张已经进行了将近一年].GDP growth in the euro zone, a region until recentlysynonymous with[等同的]economic misery, is around 2.5%, despite slower population growth than America’s[尽管，在最近几乎与经济受灾区等同的欧元区，人口增长较美国慢，但是其GDP的增长为2.5%]. But America stands out because of where it is in thecycle[但是，美国能够凸显出来是因为其所处的商业周期].If it continues in 2018, this expansion will become the country’s second-longest ever[如果经济扩张持续到2018年，将成为美国历史上第二长时间的扩张].

True, there areperils[风险][的确，风险是存在的]. As the business cycle matures[随着商业周期的成熟], there is more chance that the economy will overheat[经济过热的可能性越大], because of bottlenecks in the jobs market[因为就业市场已经达到瓶颈]; or that the central bank over-tightens in order to prevent things from running too hot[或者中央银行为防止经济过热而采取过度紧缩政策]. The longer the economy keeps growing,moreover, the more scope there is for financial imbalances, such as excess debt orfrothy[有泡沫的]asset prices, to build up[除此之外，经济增长持续时间越长，财政不平衡的范围越大，例如，超额负债或是资产价格泡沫]. Some warning signals are flashing[有些危险信号已经亮起]. The gap between long-term and short-term interest rates has narrowed, as it tends to before recessions[长期利率和短期利率的差距已经缩小了，正如经济萧条前的趋势一样].

Yet the evidence for overheating is thin[但是，经济过热的证据还不足]. Inflation has trended lower this year[通过膨胀今年有走低的趋势]. Wage growth haspicked up[增长] a little, thankfully, but shows few signs of accelerating[谢天谢地，工资增长已经有所提升，但是还没有充足的迹象表明会加速增长]. Pay would have to increase byquite a lot morebefore rising inflation is a real worry[工资本应在通胀上涨成为真正的担忧之前增加的更多]. The proposed tax cuts are paid for by bigger budgetdeficits[提议的减税政策要为引起更大的财政赤字买单], a fiscal stimulus that isill-timed[不合时宜的]given the business cycle[对于现在所处的商业周期，是一个不合时宜的财政刺激]. But the tax cuts favour companies (whichin aggregate[总的来说]are generating bumper profits) or rich individuals (who save more of their income)[但是，减税政策对公司（总的来说产生更多的收益）或有钱人（可以从收益中攒更多的钱）有利]. That means therippleeffects[连锁反应]from the stimulus are likely to be small[意味着财政刺激带来的连锁反应很可能较小].

The risk that the Federal Reserve tightens too much isaggravated[更加严重]by a change in the make-up of its rate-setting committee[美联储过度紧缩的风险因其利率委员会成员组成的改变而加剧], which willtake on[承担]a morehawkish tinge[鹰派色彩][一个广泛用于政治上的名词，用以形容主张采取强势外交手段或积极军事扩张的人士、团体或势力。另一解释为以强硬态度或手段维护国家主义民族主义利益的个人、团体或势力。鹰派的反义词为“鸽派”]from next year[美联储将在明年承担更多的鹰派色彩]. Indeed,nothingMrTrump doesis likely tohave a bigger effect on the economythanhis choices to fill Fedvacancies[事实上，特朗普除了填补了美联储的空缺职位外，其他的作为对经济的更大的影响几乎没有]. But the tightening so far—the Fed raised rates by another quarter of a percentage point this week, to a range of 1.25-1.5%—hasbeen appropriate[美联储这周将利率又上调了四分之一个百分点，但是，到目前为止紧缩政策是合理的]. As for financial imbalances, pockets of excessive leverage exist[至于财政失衡，存在过度杠杆化问题]. But the stockmarket has reached new highs as real interest rates havefallen[但是股票市场已经到达新高，而实际利率下降]: yields have dropped across all asset classes, from property in big cities to junk bonds[所有的资产阶级的收益都下跌，从大城市资产到垃圾债券（价格低但风险大的债券）]. Asset prices may be high, but there is a logic to their ascent[资产价格可能会高，但有高的理由].

Still has bite 影响依旧

A mature cycle also has pluses[成熟的周期也有优势].Investment is one[投资是其中一个]. A global upswing in fixed capital spending is alreadyintrain[已经形成], led by America but notconfinedto[仅限于]it[由美国主导，但不限于美国的全球固定资产支出上涨已经形成]. It is fuelled inpart bya drop in uncertainty about the global economy[全球经济不确定性的降低，一定程度上促进了固定资产支出的上涨]. Businesses that havebeen reluctant tomake long-term bets whenone orother[不管哪一个]of the engines of the world economy has beensputtering[噼啪的响][当不管哪一个世界经济的引擎噼啪直响时，那些不愿意压长期堵住的企业想在更愿意将钱运作起来] are now more willing toput their money to work[让钱工作，将钱运作起来，很形象的表达]. Investment has also followed a surge in profits, reflecting stronger GDP growth, as it tends to[正如GDP趋势所向，投资也跟随着收益的增长反映出了GDP更强的增长]. As workers become scarcer in America’s tightening labour market, firms have a greater incentive to automate[由于工人在美国紧锁的劳动力市场更加缺乏，企业有更大的动力去实现自动化].

A second boon of a maturing cycle is higher productivity, which has risenat a snail’s pacein all countries since the global financial crisis[成熟周期的第二个优势是更高的生产力，自全球金融危机后]，所有国家生产力以蜗牛的速度提升]. More capital spending by businesses will help[企业更多的资产支出对生产力提升有帮助]. And in America, in particular, firmsare under pressure toreorganise their businesses tomeetexpandingdemand[尤其在美国，企业为了达到更大需求的要求，面临着重组企业的压力], because low unemployment makes it harder to findadditional workers[因为低失业率的市场更难找到额外的工人]. America is not about to return to pre-2005 rates of productivity growth, whatever Mr Trump tweets[不论特朗普的推特说什么，美国将不会回到2005年之前的生产力增长率]. But there aretentative[试探性的]signs that the rate is starting topick upfrom itsdismal[悲伤绝望的], post-crisisslump[萧条][但是，有隐约的迹象表明增长率正在从危机后绝望的萧条中回升].

All expansions eventually come to an end[所有的扩张最终都会结束].Even if America does notinflict[遭受]a recession on itself—through ill-judged trade policies, say—aglobal shockcould do the job[即使美国自己不会遭受比如说错误贸易政策判断引起的萧条，全球经济冲击也会让其衰退]. When that time comes, America’s policymakers will end up regretting how government revenues weresquandered[挥霍]on a badly designed tax cut[到那时，美国决策者终将后悔政府怎能把收益挥霍在糟糕的减税政策上]. The deficits that result will make it politically harder for Congress to agree on a fiscal stimulus tocombat[制止]the next downturn[这么做带来的赤字将使国会更加难以在政治层面上，对制止下一次衰退的财政刺激政策达成一致]. Interest rates will in all likelihood peak at much lower levels than in the past[利率将极大可能在比过去低很多的情况下达到高峰], limiting the scope for bigcuts[公共开支削减]to fight a recession[限制大量公共开支削减的范围以应对经济衰退]. In this, theworrywarts[杞人忧天的人]are entirely correct[在这件事上，杞人忧天的人是完全正确的].

But the immediate outlook is sunny[眼前的前景是乐观的].The global upswing is still young, and has momentum[全球经济复苏依然有活力，有势头]. Mr Trump’s policies have lifted the spirits of business leaders, who already had reason to be confident[特朗普的政策鼓舞了商业领袖的士气，让他们有理由有信心].Galling[使人恼怒的]though it must be to the president’s critics, America’s economy is well placed for 2018[尽管这让挑剔总统的人很恼怒，但美国2018年的经济准备就绪].

2017/12/20   1065 words