Day 1原文文本

【翻译划线段落】

Dollars will findbuyers hard to find in 2017

With theUSFederal Reserve raising interest rates, and President Mario Draghi of theEuropean Central Bankseemingly unable

to escape his addiction to quantitative easing policy,many investors arequestioning who wants to buy the euro. The answer is simple. The whole world iseager to buy the euro. The problem in 2017 is more likely to be finding anyonewho wants to buy the US dollar.

美国联邦储备系统持续提高利率，欧洲中央银行行长马里奥·德拉吉也似乎无法放弃对量化宽松货币政策的钟爱，这引起许多投资者的议论：谁还会去购买欧元呢？答案很简单:全世界都热切想要购买欧元。2017年，谁会想要购买美元才更可能是个问题。

TheMiddle Eastis a good example of a region ofavid euro buyers.Even with therecent rally in the oil price,mostMiddle Eastern countries are expected torunsizeable fiscal deficits. The IMF expectsSaudi Arabiatorun a fiscal deficit of almost 10 per cent of GDP next year. To fund theirbudget deficits, the Gulf countries are selling central bank reserves and poolsof assets held by their sovereign wealth funds.

中东地区就是欧元的热切买家中的一大代表。即便最近油价上涨，大多数中东地区的国家预计都存在巨额财政赤字。联合国国际货币基金组织预估沙特阿拉伯明年的财政赤字占其国内生产总值的近百分之十。这个海湾国家正在出售央行储备和资产池型主权财富基金来为预算赤字提供资金。

ImagineSaudi Arabiasells US Treasuries, and uses the dollars it receives to pay its civilservants. Then imagine that a Saudi Arabian civil servant takes their pay anduses the money to buy a BMW car in euros. What is happening?Saudi Arabiaisselling dollars and buying euros. It does not matter that there is an asset onone side of the transaction and a BMW on the other side of the transaction —the foreign exchange market implicationis the same whether it is Bunds or BMWs that are bought.

If the Middle Eastbuys assets, they like their assets to be made inAmerica(central banks buy roughly twice as manyUSassets as other assets). If theMiddle East buys products and services, they like their products and servicesto be made in Europe (the Middle East buys twice as much from Europe as fromtheUS).Thus if theMiddle Eastis selling assets tobuy goods, it sells dollars to buy euros.

Of coursethis does not just apply totheMiddle East. The world is eager to buy euros because theworld wants European products(in preference toUS products). The relativecurrent account balancesof the Euroarea and theUSalone tell us that.China,another economy inclined todivestitself of US assetsof late, buysmore euro area imports than US imports.The same is true ofthe APEC Asian economies as abloc.Africa’spreference forEuro area products incomparison to American isoverwhelming.Only Latin America exhibits any relative

desire tobuy “made inAmerica”.The rest of the worldclamoursforeuros to obtain goods and services from their preferred supplier.

1.divest:~ yourself of sth to

get rid of sth处理掉；丢弃:

»The company is divesting itself of some ofits assets.公司正在处理它的部份财产。

~ sb / sth of sth to

take sth away from sb / sth使解除；使摆脱:

»After her illness she was divested of much ofher responsibility.她生病后便给解除了许多责任。

2.bloc: a group of

countries that work closely together because they have similar political

interests (政治利益一致的)国家集团

So why is the euronot stronger with all this enthusiastic buying of BMWs and other euro areagoods?

3.clamour: to demandsomething loudly

[clamour for]

The audiencecheered, clamoring for more.

[clamour to dosomething]

All his friends wereclamouring to know where he’d been.

to talk or shoutloudly:

Children clamoredexcitedly.

In 2016 theUSbasicallypleaded withthe rest ofthe world to lend it money. US interest rates are above those of the euro area(euro area interest rates are negative).USbond yields are above those ofthe euro area (many euro area bond yields are negative). USequitieshaveoutperformedthose of the euro area (by about 15 per cent, and euroarea equity performance is negative this year). The US basically did everythingthat it could to persuade investors to buy dollars — and at the end of all ofthat effort the euro still trades within 4 per cent of where it traded againstthe dollar at the start of the year.

The challenge fortheUSis that it needs foreigners to buy dollars every day to stop the dollar fromfalling. In the first nine months of 2016, foreigners had to purchase $2.7bnevery day. That is more than the daily GDP of theNetherlands.Any day thatforeignerswere not inclined tobuy $2.7bn, thedollar would weaken. This is important — if foreigners decide that they want to“wait and see” what Donald Trump’s policies are like beforecommitting tobuying more dollars, thenthe dollar will fall. “Wait and see” is not good enough for theUS.

The question is notwho wants to buy euros — the whole world wants to buy euros because the wholeworld wants to buy euro area products. TheUShad to offer considerable financialincentives to persuade foreigners to buy dollars.

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