巴菲特1966年度信一(五)。2024-11-11

英文早读第118篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。

At that time, and for some years subsequently, there were substantial numbers of securities selling at well below the "value to a private owner" criterion we utilized for selection of general market investments. We also experienced a flow of "workout" opportunities where the percentages were very much to our liking. The problem was always which, not what. Accordingly, we were able to own fifteen to twenty-five issues and be enthusiastic about the probabilities inherent in all holdings.
在那时,和之后的一些年,有大量的股票以很低于以我们应用在一般股市中选择投资“私有者价值”标准的价格在出售。我们也经历过“套利类”的源源不断地机会,在那里百分比很接近我们喜欢的。问题经常是哪一个而不是是什么。相应地,我们也能够拥有15到25个股票并且对所有持股地内在可能性很乐观。

In the last few years this situation has changed dramatically. We now find very few securities that are understandable to me, available in decent size, and which offer the expectation of investment performance meeting our yardstick of ten percentage points per annum superior to the Dow. In the last three years we have come up only two or three new ideas a year that have had such an expectancy of superior performance. Fortunately, in some cases, we have made the most of them. However, in earlier years, a lesser effort produced literally dozens of comparable opportunites.It is difficult to be objective about the causes for such diminution of one's own productivity. Three factors that seem apparent are:(1) a somewhat changed market environment; (2) our increased size; and (3) substantially more competition.
最近几年这个情况大幅改变了。我们现在发现非常少的股票对我是合理的,可以获得可观的规模,提供投资表现的预期满足我们的平均每年优于道琼斯10个百分点的标准。在最近三年我们一年仅仅有2个或3个新的想法可以满足优秀表现的预期。幸运的是,在某些情况下,我们大部分都实现了。然而,在早些年,更少的努力就真正地产出十来个差不多的机会。很难公平的说一个人生产效率降低的理由。有3个因素似乎很明显:(1)某种程度上的市场环境改变;(2)我们增长的规模;和(3)大幅增加的竞争。

It is obvious that a business based upon only a trickle of fine ideas has poorer prospects than one based upon a steady flow of such ideas. To date the trickle has provided as much financial nourishment as the flow. This is true because there is only so much one can digest (million dollar ideas are of no great benefit to thousand dollar bank accounts - this was impressed on me in my early days) and because a limited number of ideas causes one to utilize those available more intensively. The latter factor has definitely been operative with us in recent years. However, a trickle has considerably more chance of drying up completely than a flow.
很明显一个业务仅仅基于一小股好的主意会比一个基于稳定流动的这些主意前景差。到今天,这些小股也提供了和稳流同样的财务营养。这是真的一个人仅仅可以消化这么多(百万美元的机会对一千美元的银行账户没有价值——这在早些年令我印象深刻)并且因为有限数量的主意让一个人利用这些可获得的机会更加集中。后面这个因素的确让我们最近这些年有操作性。然而,小股比稳流有更相当大的可能枯竭。

These conditions will not cause me to attempt investment decisions outside my sphere of understanding ( I don't go for the "If you can't lick 'em, join 'em" philosophy - my own leaning is toward "If you can't join 'em, lick 'em"). We will not go into businesses where technology which is away over my head is crucial to the investment decision. I know about as much about semi-conductors or integrated circuits as I do of the mating habits of the chrzaszcz. (That's a Polish May bug, students - if you have trouble pronouncing it, rhyme it with thrzaszcz.)
这些条件不会让我尝试在我认知圈外的投资决定。(我不会加入”如果你战胜不了,就加入“的哲学——我自己的座右铭是”如果你加入不了,就战胜)。我们不会进入到一个远高于我头脑的技术对于投资决定很关键的业务。我知道关于半导体和集成电路的知识和我连接chrzaszcz的生活习惯一样多。(这是一种波兰五月瓢虫,学生们——如果你对他发音有困难,就按thrzaszcz读。)

Furthermore, we will not follow the frequently prevalent approach of investing in securities where an attempt to anticipate market action overrides business valuations. Such so-called "fashion" investing has frequently produced very substantial and quick profits in recent years (and currently as I write this in January). It represents an investment technique whose soundness I can neither affirm nor deny. It dose not completely satisfy my intellect (or perhaps my prejudices), and most definitely does not fit my temperament. I will not invest my own money based upon such an approach hence, I will most certainly not do so with your money.
更近一步,我们也不会跟随经常流行的投资股票路径试图参与市场运作无视商业价值。这类所谓的“时尚”投资在最近年份经常产生非常大和快的盈利(正如我写这段是正在的1月份)。他代表一种投资技术他的声音我既不承认也不否认。他不能完全满足我的智力(或许是我的偏见)并且很确定也不符合我的性情。我不会用我自己的钱按这类路径投资因此,我将很确定也不会用你的钱这样做。

Finally, we will not seek out activity in investment operations, even if offering splendid profit expectations, where major human problems appear to have a substantial chance of developing.
最后,我们不会寻找在投资运作中的活跃度,即使提供很大的盈利预期,大部分人类问题似乎是有发展的很大可能性。

What I do promise you, as partners, is that I will work hard to maintain the trickle of ideas and try to get the most out of it that is possible - but if it should dry up completely, you will be informed honestly and promptly so that we may all take alternative action.
作为合伙人,我可以对你承诺的是,我会努力工作去获取这一小股主意并试图尽可能完成他们——但是如果他完全枯竭了,你会被诚实地及时地通知因此我们都可以采取备选行动。

24.subsequent:随后的;之后的;后来的
25.criterion:标准;准则;原则
26.understandable:可以理解的;易懂的;正常的;合理的
27.literally:按字面;字面上;真正地
28.dozen:一打;十来个;十二个
29.diminution:减少;降低;缩小
30.apparent:显然的;显而易见;表面上的
31.trickle:涓涓细流;细流;小股流淌
32.nourishment:营养;营养品
33.digest:消化;理解;领悟;领会
34.intensively:强烈地;集中地
35.lick:舔;掠过;轻松战胜
36.crucial:关键的;至关重要的;关键性的
37.prevalent:流行的;盛行的
38.override:覆盖;推翻;无视;践踏
39.prejudice:偏见
40.temperament:性情;秉性;性格
41.seek out:找出;寻找到

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