Climate Change Has Already Increased Global Inequality. It Will Only Get Worse 气候改变加重了全球的不平等，且会越来越糟
---by Justin Worland via TIME
由 Justin Worland 发表在《时代周刊》
Scientists have long predicted that warmer temperatures caused by climate change will have the biggest impact on the world’s poorest, most vulnerable people. New research now indicates that’s already happened over the last several decades.
科学家们很早就预测说由气候变化所导致的气温上升将对世界上的穷人（最易受影响的人）造成最大的冲击。新的研究表明：在过去的几十年间，这一冲击已经发生了。
A study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science found that in most poor countries, higher temperatures are more than 90% likely to have resulted in decreased economic output, compared to a world without global warming. Meanwhile, the effect has been less dramatic in wealthier nations—with some even potentially benefiting from higher temperatures.
周一发表在《美国科学院院报》的一篇研究发现：与不存在全球变暖的世界相比，大多数贫穷国家的经济产量有超过九成的可能性因温度上升而下降。与此同时，对于比较富有的国家，这个影响没有那么剧烈，甚至有一些国家可能从温度上升中获益。
“We’re not arguing that global warming created inequality,” says Noah S. Diffenbaugh, the author of the study and a professor at Stanford University who studies climate change. But “global warming has put a drag on improvement.” The countries most likely to have lost out economically as a result of warmer temperatures have done the least to contribute to the problem, he adds.
这个研究的作者，斯坦福一个研究气候变化的教授——NSD说：“我们并不是说全球气候变暖制造了不平等，”。但是，他还说：“全球气候变暖减缓了（不平等的）改善。”因为温度上升对那个问题（不平等的改善）没有一丁点贡献，因此国家更可能在经济上遭受损失。
The new study builds on past research. A 2015 study in the journal Nature projected that the average income in the poorest countries will decline 75% by 2100 compared to a world without warming, while some of the richest countries could experience gains in income. And a landmark report released last fall from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN’s climate science body, showed that if global temperatures rise more than 1.5°C by the end of the century, poor countries will likely face critical challenges, including the destruction of entire communities and millions of premature deaths.
这个新研究是基于过去的研究实现的。2015年发表在《自然》杂志上的一篇研究提出：与不存在全球气候变暖的世界相比，到2100年，一些最贫穷国家的平均收入将减少75%。然而，一些最富有国家的收入会发生上扬。国际气候变化专家委员会（IPCC，英国气候科学团体）去年秋天发表的一篇里程碑式报道表明：如果本世纪末全球温度上升超过1.5 ℃，贫穷的国家将可能面临严峻的挑战，包括人口结构失衡和成千上万的早死亡（即早逝，如四五十岁时死亡）。
landmark [ˈlændmɑ:k] n. [航]陆标; 界标; 里程碑; 纪念碑; adj. 有重大意义或影响的;
destruction [dɪˈstrʌkʃn] n. 破坏，毁灭，消灭，灭亡，扑灭，驱除; 摧毁; 毁灭的原因，破坏手段; 杀害;
premature [ˈpremətʃə(r)] adj. 过早的; 提前的; 早产的; 草率的; n. 早产儿;
“They will suffer the most, they will suffer disproportionately, as they are already,” said Mary Robinson, a former U.N. Special Envoy on Climate Change and a previous president of Ireland, told TIME after the launch of the IPCC report.
IPCC的报告发出后，前英国气候变化特使、爱尔兰总统MR告诉《时代》说：“他们（贫穷国家）将会受到最大冲击，他们将会受到不相称的冲击，像他们遭遇的状况一样。”
disproportionately [ˌdɪsprə'pɔ:ʃənətlɪ] adv. 不匀称，不相称;
envoy [ˈenvɔɪ] n. 使节，外交官; 全权公使; 谈判代表; 书后，结尾诗节;
Even before any of that research was published, climate policymakers have tried to address the problem of the poorest countries facing the worst effects of rising temperatures—for which they are least responsible. Early attempts at addressing global warming on the international stage included different expectations for emissions reduction based on each country’s level of development. Poorest countries received more leeway while the richest bore extra responsibility.
甚至在这类研究发表之前，气候政策制定者们已经尝试解决最贫穷的国家遭受温度上升最严重的冲击这一问题，而这些国家是最不应该为它（温度上升）负责的。早期在国际层面解决全球气候变暖的尝试包括基于各个国家的发展水平制定不同的减排期望目标。贫穷国家拥有很大操作空间，而富裕的国家承担超额的责任。
address [əˈdres] n. 地址; 通信处; 演说; 称呼; v. 寄给; 演说; 向…说话; 称呼; 处理;
leeway [ˈli:weɪ] n. （航行由于强风所致的）偏航; 余地; 时间损失，落后; 风压差，风压角;
But in some ways, that approach backfired in the U.S., and by extension the rest of the world, as it helped feed the popular conservative narrative that Washington is overpaying for climate change mitigation, while poorer countries are getting away with doing less. That Republican talking point has had real effects. Hardline distinctions between requirements for rich and poor countries have been softened in recent years, in favor of a lighter version of what climate change policymakers refer to as “common but differentiated responsibilities.”
但是某种程度上，在美国，甚至是在世界上的其他国家，这个办法受到了抨击。有一个由来已久的说法是美国为缓解气候变化付出了很大代价，然而，相对较穷的国家少有贡献。共和党人的观点更具有实际意义。近年来，针对富裕和贫穷国家强硬的区别要求正在减弱，因此形成了一个更缓和的模式，即气候变化政策制定者提出一个一般（标准）但是（针对国家经济状况）有区分的责任。
backfire [ˌbækˈfaɪə(r)] vi. 发生回火; 适得其反，事与愿违的结果; n. 逆火;
conservative [kənˈsɜ:vətɪv] n. 保守的人; （英国）保守党党员，保守党支持者; adj. 保守的; （英国）保守党的; （式样等）不时新的;
narrative [ˈnærətɪv] n. 记叙文; 故事; 叙述，记事; 叙述手法; adj. 叙述的，叙事体的; 善于叙述的;
mitigation [ˌmɪtɪˈgeɪʃn] n. 缓解，减轻，平静;
hardline ['hɑrdˌlaɪn] n. 强硬路线; adj. 强硬的; 不妥协的;
differentiated [dɪfə'renʃɪeɪtɪd] v. 区分，区别，辨别; 区别对待; 表明…间的差别，构成…间差别的特征;
That principle, embedded in climate agreements dating back to 1992, including the landmark Paris Agreement, suggests that richer countries should bear a greater burden in addressing climate change, but remains vague about what that means for concrete policy.
这个原则产生于1992年的气候协议，包括标志性的巴黎协定。它提出富有国家应该对解决气候变化问题承担更多的责任，但是具体政策制定仍然比较含糊不定。
embedded [ɪm'bedɪd] adj. 植入的，深入的，内含的;
vague [veɪg] adj. 模糊的; （思想上）不清楚的; （表达或感知）含糊的; 暧昧的; n. 模糊不定状态;
concrete [ˈkɒŋkri:t] adj. 具体的，有形的，实在的，实际的; 固结成的，混凝土制的; 图案诗歌的; n. 混凝土; 具体物; （图案式）有形诗; 〔建〕钢筋混凝土; vt. 使凝固; 用混凝土修筑; 萃取; vi. 凝固; 固结; 变坚固; 使用混凝土;
Many of the world’s developing countries have called foul. “This problem is created somewhere else,” Abdur Rouf Talukder, Bangladesh’s Finance Secretary, told TIME earlier this month. “We are spending more on adaptation because we have to live.”
世界上的很多发展中国家都有所违规。在本月早些时候，孟加拉共和国的经济秘书ARF告诉《时代》说：“这个问题是由其他地方产生的，但是因为要生存下去，我们已经花了很大代价去适应（这一变化）。”
foul [faʊl] adj. [体]违反规则的，犯规的; 邪恶的; 难闻的，有恶臭的; 下流的; vt.& vi. 纠缠，纠结; [体]违反规则的; vt. 弄脏，使污秽; 使纠缠; 使阻塞;vi. 腐烂; 缠结; n. 犯规; 缠结; 碰撞; adv. 不正当地，犯规地; 碰撞地; 争执不和地;
Bangladesh’s GDP per capita was 12% lower due to global warming than it would have been otherwise in the two decades preceding 2010, according to the study published Monday. The effect is more dramatic elsewhere, particularly in sub-Saharan African countries including Sudan, Burkina Faso and Niger, where climate change has driven GDP per capita more than 20% lower that it would have been absent climate change.
根据周一发布的报告，在2010年之前的二十年间（1990-2010年间），由于全球变暖，孟加拉共和国的人均GDP比（没有气候变暖情况下的人均GDP）下降了12%。这一现象在其他地方表现地更加剧烈，特别是撒哈拉以南非洲国家，包括苏丹、布基纳法索以及尼日尔。这些地方的人均GDP因气候变化比没有气候变暖的情况下发生超过20%的下降。
per capita [pə ˈkæpɪtə] adj. 每人; 按人分配的; 按人口平均;
preceding [prɪ'si:dɪŋ] adj. （时间或地点上）在先的，在前的，前面的; 前述的; 上述的; v. 在…之前发生（或出现）; 走在…前面; 先于;
Higher temperatures affect economic output in a variety of ways. For example, labor productivity decreases with extreme heat, crops produce lower yields and cognitive functioning declines. “There are a number of pathways by which temperature affects building blocks of economic activity,” says Diffenbaugh. What’s clear is that, for poor countries, the news is all bad.
温度上升可以通过多种途径影响经济产量。例如：高温时，工人生产力下降、农作物收获下降及认知能力下降。D说：“温度可以通过众多方式影响经济活动的构成要素。”不过，明确的是，全球变暖对于贫穷的国家来说都是负面作用。
cognitive [ˈkɒgnətɪv] adj. 认知的; 认识的;
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