Don’t Rely on Credibility Stamps 不要依赖信誉背书
The generation-long shift from institutions to individuals will be messy 从机构到个人的一代人的转变将是混乱的
纳瓦尔： 当今社会中有很多机构依赖信誉背书。
Naval: There are a lot of institutions in our society today that rely on credibility stamps.
它们曾经是你在社会上获得信誉的方式。如果你是一名为《纽约时报》或《华盛顿邮报》撰稿的记者，那么你就拥有了《泰晤士报》和《华盛顿邮报》的头条。如果你是哈佛大学的教授，你就有信誉，因为你是哈佛大学的教授。
They used to be how you gain credibility in society. If you were a journalist writing forThe New York Times orThe Washington Post, then you had the masthead ofThe Times andThe Post. If you’re a professor at Harvard, you have credibility because you’re a professor at Harvard.
当然，这些系统被打乱了。许多社会科学家没有必要告诉世界该做什么，现在却在那里，他们伪装成经济学家或自然科学家，使用无用的政治模型。有一些活动家在这些过往知名的报纸头条下写文章，并正在毁掉这些报纸长期积累的信誉资本。
Of course, those systems got hacked. A lot of social scientists who have no business telling the world what to do are now in there with nonsense political models masquerading as economists or natural scientists. You have people who are activists writing under the mastheads of these formerly great newspapers and burning up the credibility capital that these newspapers have built up over time.
互联网正在缓慢但稳定地暴露它们，我们正在经历这个过渡阶段，大众依然相信这些组织机构。
The Internet is exposing them slowly but steadily, and we’re going through a transition phase where the masses still believe in the institutions.
我们陷入了Schelling观点，这个机构的协调点：我怎么知道我是否应该雇用你？你会有哈佛的文凭吗？我知道它不如以前那么好。我知道哈佛人文文凭在这一点上可能是无稽之谈，但我没有任何其他可信度指标来过滤你，我需要以有效的方式做到这一点。
We’re caught in thisSchelling point, this coordination point for the institutions: How do I know if I should hire you? Will you have a diploma from Harvard? I know it’s not as good as it used to be. I know a Harvard humanities diploma’s probably nonsense at this point, but I don’t have any other credibility metric to filter you and I need to do it in an efficient way.
我们看到的是权力从机构到个人的过渡，但这将是混乱的，至少需要一代人的时间。
What we’re seeing is the transition of power from institutions to individuals, but it’s going to be messy and it’s going to take at least a generation.
与此同时，这些机构正在反击。我们正处于《帝国反击战》阶段，他们正试图接管 Twitter、Facebook、Patreon 等新平台，这些平台赋予个人权力。
In the meantime, the institutions are fighting back. We’re in the Empire Strikes Back phase where they’re trying to take over the new platforms like Twitter, Facebook, Patreon, which empower the individuals.
布雷特： 大学和所有学术界有很大的影响力，能够培养自己的下一代教师，然后他们继续教授下一代中小学生。
Brett: The university and all of the academia have a very big stick in terms of being able to train their own next generation of teachers who then go on to teach the next generation of primary and secondary school students.
纳瓦尔：这是一个神职，你只能说被牧师批准的内容，而且如果你是牧师，你可以决定谁是牧师。
Naval: It’s a priesthood. You’re only allowed to say what the priests have approved, and you can only say that if you are a priest, and the priests get to decide who’s a priest.
马丽：这个十年、二十年、一代人或更长的时间里，我们将经历权力从组织向个人转变的年代，去中心化。被机构管理和控制的报纸杂志不是唯一的信息来源，自媒体平台百花齐放、竞相争鸣，个体可以选择不同的公众自媒体平台，进行个人思想的展示和日常的分享，独立个体将与机构组织平分舆论舞台，个体影响力将不断增强，当然组织机构仍然会培养他们的下一代与个体相对抗，这将是很有意思的一个对决，谁胜谁负暂未知晓，我们拭目以待。个体可以在这个时代中尝到的红利是，借助机构和各自媒体平台展现自己、大放异彩，创造属于自己的人生传奇（人生遨游历险记）。
This is a happy end
Come and give me your hand
I’ll take you far away
I‘m a new soul
I came to this strange world
Hoping I could learn a bit about how to give and take
But since I came here, felt the joy and the fear
Finding myself making every possible mistake
