巨无霸指数(节选)
2018-04-13 (转自)译员之路
The Big Mac index
巨无霸指数
The all-meaty dollar
Burgernomics gets to grips with a strong greenback
肥厚的美元
“汉堡经济学”着手应对强势美元
It Is perhaps not surprising that the worst-performing major currency in the world this year is the Turkish lira. Many emerging-market currencies have taken a battering since the election in November of Donald Trump raised expectations of faster monetary tightening in America and sent the dollar soaring. But the lira has many other troubles to contend with, too: terrorist bombings, an economic slowdown, alarm over plans by the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to strengthen his powers, and a central bank reluctant to raise interest rates to defend the currency. It has plunged to record lows. According to the Big Mac index, our patty-powered currency guide, it is now undervalued by 45.7% against the dollar.
今年世界上表现最差的主要货币是土耳其里拉，这也许并不令人意外。去年11月唐纳德·特朗普的胜选推高了对美国加快实行货币紧缩政策的预期，引发美元飙升。随后，许多新兴市场的货币便遭到重创。不过，里拉还要应对其他许多麻烦：恐怖炸弹袭击、经济放缓、总统埃尔多安为加强自身权力而采取的各种计划引发恐慌，以及土耳其央行不愿提高利率来捍卫本国货币。里拉已暴跌至历史低位。根据我们以汉堡肉饼为灵感的货币指南——巨无霸指数，如今里拉相对于美元被低估了45.7%。
The Big Mac index is built on the idea of purchasing-power parity, the theory that in the long run currencies will converge until the same amount of money buys the same amount of goods and services in every country. A Big Mac currently costs $5.06 in America but just 10.75 lira ($2.75) in Turkey, implying that the lira is undervalued.
巨无霸指数以购买力平价这一理念为理论基础，即长远来看，不同货币的汇率会自动调整，直到相同数量的商品和服务在所有国家中都售价相同。一个巨无霸汉堡在美国售价为5.06美元，但在土耳其只卖10.25里拉（2.75美元），这就意味着里拉的价值被低估。
If there is parity between two things, they are equal. (FORMAL) If there is parity between the units of currency of two countries, the exchange rate is such that the units are equal to each other. (TECHNICAL)
However, other currencies are even cheaper. In Big Mac terms, the Mexican peso is undervalued by a whacking 55.9% against the greenback. Last week it also plumbed a record low as Mr Trump reiterated some of his campaign threats against Mexico. The peso has lost a tenth of its value against the dollar since November. Of big countries, only Russia offers a cheaper Big Mac, in dollar terms, even though the rouble has strengthened over the past year.
然而，其他的货币对美元的估值还要更低。根据巨无霸指数，墨西哥比索相对美元被低估高达55.9%。上周，因特朗普重提竞选时曾向墨西哥发出的某些威胁，比索也跌至纪录低位。自去年11月以来，比索兑美元已贬值10%。在大国中，以美元计，只有俄罗斯的巨无霸卖得更便宜，尽管过去一年中卢布已经走强。
The euro zone is also prey to political uncertainty. Elections are scheduled this year in the Netherlands, France and Germany, and possible in Italy. The euro recently fell to its lowest level since 2003. Britain’s Brexit vote has had an even bigger effect on the pound, which has fallen to $1.21, a 31-year low. According to the Big Mac index, the euro and the pound are undervalued against the dollar by 19.7% and 26.3%, respectively.
同样受政治不确定因素影响的还有欧元区。荷兰、法国、德国（也许还会有意大利）都预定在今年举行大选。欧元近来已跌至2003年来的最低水平。英国脱欧公投对英磅的冲击还要更大，其兑美元的汇率已跌至1.21，为31年来的最低水平。根据巨无霸指数，欧元与英镑相对于美元分别被低估19.7%和26.3%。
One of the drawbacks of the Big Mac index is that it takes no account of labour costs. It should surprise no one that a Big Mac costs less in Shanghai than it does in San Francisco, since Chinese workers earn far less than their American counterparts. So in a slightly more sophisticated version of the Big Mac index, we take account of a country’s average income.
巨无霸指数的缺点之一就是它并未计入各国劳动力成本的差异。人们应该并不会因上海的巨无霸要比旧金山的便宜而意外，因为中国工人的薪水要比美国工人低得多。因此，在一个稍微复杂些的巨无霸指数中，我们将一个国家的平均收入考虑在内。
Historically, this adjustment has tended to raise currencies’ valuations against the dollar, so emerging-market currencies tend to look more reasonably priced. The Chinese yuan, for example, is 44% undervalued against the dollar according to our baseline Big Mac index, but only 7% according to the adjusted one. The deluxe Big Mac index has typically made rich-world currencies look more expensive. Because western Europeans have higher costs of living and lower incomes than Americans, the euro has traded at around a 25% premium against the dollar in income-adjusted burger terms since the euro’s inception.
在过去，这种调整往往会令各国货币相对美元估值升高，新兴市场的货币估值因而看起来会更趋于合理。例如，依照“基础版”的巨无霸指数，人民币对美元的估值低了44%，而据调整过的指数，这个数字仅为7%。“加强版”巨无霸指数通常都令富裕国家的货币显得更为昂贵。由于西欧人较美国人生活成本高而收入低，根据收入调整的巨无霸指数来衡量的话，自欧元面世后其兑美元汇率的溢价约达25%。
整理自议员之路
http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3DLl9a5FGV3W3rqFxrtdAg
Betsy
2018.4.13
