Brazil has become one of the developing world’s great successes at reducing population growth - but more by accident than design. While countries such as India have made joint efforts to reduce birth rates, Brazil has had better result without really trying, says George Martine at Harvard.
巴西已经成为发展中国家在减少人口增长方面取得的巨大成功之一，但更多的是偶然而非设计。哈佛大学的乔治·马丁说，虽然印度等国共同努力降低出生率，但巴西在没有真正实施的情况下取得了更好的结果。
Brazil’s population growth rate has dropped from 2.99% a year between 1951 and 1960 to 1.93% a year between 1981 and 1990, and Brazilian women now have only 2.7 children on average. Martine says this figure may have fallen still further since 1990, an achievement that makes it the envy of many other Third World countries.
巴西的人口增长率从1951年至1960年的每年2.99%下降到1981年至1990年的每年1.93%，巴西妇女现在平均只有2.7个孩子。马丁说，1990年以来这一数字可能进一步下降，这一成就使许多其他第三世界国家羡慕不已。
Martine puts it down to, among other things, soap operas and installment plans introduced in the 1970s. Both played an important, although indirect, role in lowering the birth rate. Brazil is one of the world’s biggest producers of soap operas. Globo, Brazil’s most popular television network, shows three hours of soaps six nights a week, while three others show at least one hour a night. Most soaps are based on wealthy characters living the high life in big cities.
马丁把它归结为20世纪70年代推出的肥皂剧和分期付款计划。两者都在降低出生率方面发挥了重要作用，尽管是间接的。巴西是世界上最大的肥皂剧生产国之一。巴西最受欢迎的电视网Globo每周六晚播放三小时的肥皂剧，另外三个电视网每晚至少播放一小时。大多数肥皂剧都是以在大城市过着奢华生活的富有人物为原型。
“Although they have never really tried to work in a message towards the problems of reproduction, they describe middle and upper class values-not many children, different attitudes towards sex, women working,” says Martine. “They sent this image to all parts of Brazil and made people conscious of other patterns of behavior and other values, which were put into a very attractive package.”
马丁说：“尽管从来没有真正尝试过传达关于生育问题的信息，但它们描述了中上层阶级的价值观——孩子不多，对性的不同态度，女性工作。这张图像发送给了巴西各地，让人们意识到了其他行为模式和价值观，这些都非常有吸引力。”
Meanwhile, the installment plans tried to encourage the poor to become consumers. “This led to an enormous change in consumption patterns and consumption was incompatible with unlimited reproduction,” says Martine.
与此同时，分期付款计划试图鼓励穷人成为消费者。“这导致了消费模式的巨大变化，消费和无限生育是不相容的，”马丁说。
