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Why the history of economic growth should be all about recessions?
为什么经济增长的历史应该都是与经济衰退相关?
“Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man,” wrote Robert
Heinlein, a science-fiction writer.
一个名为罗伯特·海因莱因( Robert Heinlein )的科幻作家写到，“纵观历史，贫穷是人们的常态”。
Until the 18th century, global GDP per person was stuck between $725 and
$1,100, around the same income level as the World Bank's current poverty line of
$1.90 a day.
直到18世纪，全球GDP每人都卡在725美元和1100美元之间，大约和世界银行目前每天1.90美元贫困线一样。
But global income levels per person have since accelerated, from around
$1,100 in 1800 to $3,600 in 1950, and over $10,000 today.
但是全球收入水平每人已经增长了，从1800年1100美元到1950年3600美元，到今天超过了10万美元。
Economists have long tried to explain this sudden surge in output.
经济学家长久以来一直试图解释这种收入上的突然增长。
Most theories have focused on the factors driving long-term economic growth
such as the quantity and productivity of labour and capital.
大部分理论都集中在促进经济长期增长的因素如劳动和资本的质量和生产力。
But a new paper takes a different tack: faster growth is not due to bigger
booms, but to less shrinking in recessions.
但是一项新的研究有了不同的看法：更快的增长并不是由于大繁荣，而是由于萧条中更少的衰退。
Stephen Broadberry of Oxford University and John Wallis of the University
of Maryland have taken data for 18 countries in Europe and the New World, some
from as far back as the 13th century.
牛津大学的斯蒂芬·布劳德伯利(Stephen Broadberry)和马里兰大学的约翰·沃利斯(John
Wallis)把18世纪欧洲和新世界，还有一些早至13世纪的数据收取了。
To their surprise, they found that growth during years of economic
expansion has fallen in the recent era—from 3.88% between 1820 and 1870 to 3.06%
since 1950—even though average growth across all years in those two periods
increased from 1.4% to 2.55%.
他们吃惊的是，他们发现经济扩张时期的经济增长在最近时期已经下降——从1820年和1870年的3.88%到自1950年3.06%——即使这两个时期中这些年份平均经济增长从1.4%上升到2.55%.
Instead, shorter and shallower slumps led to rising long-term growth.
相反，时间更短，程度更浅的经济衰退导致了长期的经济增长。
Output fell in a third of years between 1820 and 1870 but in only 12% of
those since 1950.
收入在1820年和1870年中三分之一的年份下降，但是自从1950年仅在12%的年份中下降。
The rate of decline per recession year has fallen too, from 3% to 1.2%.
每个经济衰退年份下降的比率也从3%降低到了1.2%.
So why have these “growth reversals” decreased in length and depth?
那么，为什么这些“增长逆转”在长度和深度方面下降了呢?
In another paper Messrs Broadberry and Wallis find that conventional
explanations—such as demographic change or a sectoral shift from volatile
agriculture to the more stable services sector—do not fully explain the
shift.
在另一篇 Messrs Broadberry 和
Wallis发现，传统的经济扩张——如从不稳定的农业到更加稳定的服务部门中的人口变动或部门转变——并不能完全解释这一转变。
More important is the rise of the rule of law, enabling disputes to be
settled by impartial courts.
更为重要的是法律地位的上升，保证了纠纷由公正的法庭解决。
Before the modern era, elites would fight between themselves for the spoils
of growth and send the economy back to square one through wars, corruption and
the like.
在现代时期以前，精英会为经济增长的战利品相互争夺，并通过战争，腐败和类似这样的方式恢复经济以占取一部分利益。
Respect for courts to resolve disputes prevents this from happening.
尊重法庭去解决争端阻止了这种事的发生。
With populist politicians challenging the authority of judges once again
across the world, that is food for thought.
随着民粹主义政治家再次在全世界挑战法官的权威，这值得人们深思。
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