巴菲特1967十月信(二)。2024-11-19

英文早读第126篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。

Such statistical bargains have tended to disappear over the years. This may be due to the constant combing and recombing of investments that occurred during the past twenty years, without an economic convulsion such as that of the ‘30s to create a negative bias toward equities and spawn hundreds of new bargain securities. It may be due to the new growing social acceptance, and therefore usage (or maybe it's vice versa - I'll let the behaviorists figure it out) of takeover bids which have a natural tendency to focus on bargain issues. It may be due to exploding ranks of security analysts bringing forth an intensified scrutiny of issues far beyond what existed some years ago. Whatever the cause, the result has been the virtual disappearance of the bargain issue as determined quantitatively - and thereby of our bread and butter. There still may be a few from time to time. There will also be the occasional security where I am really competent to make an important qualitative judgment. This will offer our best chance for large profits. Such instances will, however, be rare. Much of our good performance during the past three years has been due to a single idea of this sort.
这些统计上的便宜货倾向于过几年消失了。这或许因为对过去20年发生的投资不断地梳理和再梳理,而没有一个经济动荡类似于30年代产生的对股份负面偏见并造成数百个新的廉价证券。这或许因为新增长的对收购要约的社会接受度,使用也增长了(或许正好相反,我想让行为主义者去弄清他们吧),而收购要约本能倾向于聚焦便宜货。这或许因为爆炸的股票评级分析师带来了远超过去这些年存在的加强的审查。不管使什么原因,结果使作为定量决策的便宜货真正的消失——也这是我们吃饭的家伙。或许仍然是不是有一些。也会有一些巧合的股票我真的胜任去做定性判断。这会为我们超额利润提供绝佳机会。不过,这样的例子很罕见。在过去三年,我们大多数好的表现都源自于这一类的标的。

The next point of difficulty is the intensified interest in investment performance. For years I have preached the importance of measurement. Consistently I have told partners that unless our performance was better than average, the money should go elsewhere. In recent years this idea has gained momentum througout the investment (or more importantly, the investing) community. In the last year or two it has started to look a bit like a tidal wave. I think we are witnessing the distortion of a sound idea.
下一个点的困难是对投资表现增强的兴趣。这些年我一直宣导衡量的重要性。我不断告诉合伙人除非我们的表现优于平均水平,否则这些资金就应该去向别处。最近这些年这个想法在投资(或者更重要的,投资人)社区势头增长强劲。在过去一两年他开始像是一个潮流。我认为我们都在目睹这个合理理念的扭曲。

I have always cautioned partners that I considered three years a minimum in determining whether we were "performing". Naturally, as the investment public has taken the bit in its teeth, the time span of expectations has been consistently reduced to the point where investment performance by large aggregates of money is being measured yearly, quarterly, monthly, and perhaps sometimes even more frequently (leading to what is known as "instant research"). The payoff for superior short term has become enormous, not only in compensation for results actually achieved, but in the attraction of new money for the next round. Thus a self-generating type of activity has set in which leads to larger and larger amounts of money participating on a shorter and shorter time span. A disturbing corollary is that the vehicle for participation (the particular companies or stocks) becomes progressively less important - at times virtually incidental - as the activity accelerates.
我一直提醒合伙人我认为三年时决定我们是否有所“表现”的最短时限。自然地,投资公众咬着牙,预期的时间跨度持续的减少到投资表现被大量的前以年度、季度、月度,甚至有时更加频繁(导致所谓的“即时研究”)。为短期优秀表现支付的回报是巨大的,不仅仅是实际实现结果的报酬,还有在吸引下一轮新资金上。因此自我驱动型的活动导致越来越多的前参与到越来越短的时间跨度。扰乱的结果是参与的载体(特定公司或股票)变得渐渐不重要——有时实际上像是附带的——当这个举动增强时。

15.statistical:统计的;统计学的
16.combing:梳理;搜寻
17.convulsion:抽搐;动乱;骚动
18.bias:偏见;偏向;偏爱;偏心
19.equity:公平;公正;股本;资产净值
20.spawn:产卵;引发;导致;造成;引起
21.usage:使用;用法;利用率
22.intensify:加强;增强;强化
23.scrutiny:仔细检查;认真彻底的审查
24.virtual:实质上的;事实上的;很接近的
25.competent:有能力的;合格的;称职的
26.momentum:势头;动量;动力;冲力
27.tidal:潮汐的;有潮的
28.distortion:扭曲;失真;变形
29.payoff:报酬;结果;结局
30.enormous:巨大的;庞大的;极大的
31.compensation:补偿;赔偿
32.corollary:推论;必然的结果
33.incidental:次要的;附带发生的;伴随而来的;非有意的
34.sound idea:合理理念

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