英文早读第125篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。
BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD.
610 KIEWIT PLAZA
OMAHA, NERBRASKA 68131
TELEPHONE 042-4110
巴菲特合伙基金有限公司
基维特广场610室
内布拉斯卡,奥马哈, 68131
电话042-4110
October 9, 1967
1967年10月9日
To My Partners:
致我的合伙人:
Over the past eleven years, I have consistently set forth as the BPL investment goal an average advantage in our performance of ten percentage points per annum in comparision with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Under the environment that existed during that period, I have considered such an objective diffcult but obtainable.
在过去十一年,我不断阐述巴菲特合伙基金的投资目标是每年相比道琼斯工业平均指数表现平均领先10个百分点。在那个时期的环境下,我认为这样的目标是困难但是可获得的。
The following conditions now make a change in yardsticks appropriate:
接下来的条件现在使标杆做出改变更合理:
1.The market environment has changed progressively over the past decade, resulting in a sharp diminution in the number of obvious quantitatively based investment bargains available;
1.市场环境在过去十来年持续改变,导致在明显定量上可获得的投资交易数量急剧减少;
2.Mushrooming interest in investment performance (which has its ironical aspects since I was among a lonely few preaching the importance of this some years ago) has created a hyper-reactive pattern of market behavior against which my analytical techniques have limited value;
2.迅速增长的在投资表现上的兴趣(讽刺意味的一面是这些年以前我是孤零零几个宣导这个重要性的)已经形成高度敏感型的投资行为使我的分析技术价值受限。
3.The enlargement of our capital base to about 65 million when applied against a diminishing trickle of good investment ideas has continued to present the problems mentioned in the January, 1967 letter; and
3.我们资本扩大至6500万美金当用在逐步减少的好投资标的的涓流上持续代表在1967年1月信件中提到的困难;同时
4.My own personal interests dictate a less compulsive approach to superior investment results than when I was younger and leaner.
4.我自己个人兴趣决定比我年轻和贫困时相比不再强烈的获得超额投资结果。
Let's look at each of these factors in more detail.
让我们更细节的看这些因素的每一个。
The evaluation of securities and businesses for investment purposes has always involved a mixture of qualitative and quantitative factors. At the one extreme, the analyst exclusively oriented to qualitative factors would say."Bug the right company (with the right prospects, inherent industry conditions, management, etc.) and the price will take care of itself." On the other hand, the quantitative spokesman would say,"Buy at the right price and the company (and stock) will take care of itself." As is so often the pleasant result in the securities world, money can be made with either approach. And, of course, any analyst combines the two to some extent - his classification in either school would depend on the relative weight he assigns to the various factors and not to his consideration of one group of factors to the exclusion of the other group.
股票和业务的估值对于投资目的经常包括定性和定量因素的混合。在一个极端上,分析师对定性因素唯一导向的会说:“买下正确的公司(有正确的愿景,内在的行业地位,管理等等),股价会自己照顾自己。”另一方面,定量的发言人会说,“以正确的价格买,这个公司(股票)会照顾好自己。”由于在股票世界经常有令人满意的结果,金钱可以用任何一个方式赚取。并且,当然,任何分析师某种程度上将两者结合——他的分类在一个学院将取决于他分给不同因素的相对权重而不是他考虑一组因素将另一组排除。
Interestingly enough, although I consider myself to be primarily in the quantitative school (and as I write this no one has come back from recess - I may be the only one left in the class), the really sensational ideas I have had over the years have been heavily weighted toward the qualitative side where I had a "high-probability insight". This is what causes the cash register to really sing. However, it is an infrequent occurrence, as insights usually are, and, of course, no insight is required on the quantitative side - the figures should hit you over the head with a baseball bat. So the really big money tends to be made by investors who are right on qualitative decisions but, at least in my opinion, the more sure money tends to be made on the obvious quantitative decisions.
足够有趣,尽管我认为我自己主要是定量学院(当我写到这里没有人从隐蔽处出来——我或许是这个分类里唯一被剩下的),过去这些年我做的真正极好的标的严重指向定性一边,在哪里我有“较高可能的远见”。这也是引起收银机不停响的理由。然而,他不经常发生,远见通常是这样,并且,当然,在定量一边不需要远见——数据应该像棒球棒一样打你脑袋。因此真正的大钱倾向于由在定性决策上正确的投资者做出决定,但是,至少在我看来,更多确定的钱倾向于用于明显定量的决定上。
1.progressively:逐步地;持续稳定地
2.diminution:减少;降低;缩减;缩小
3.bargain:交易;协议;便宜货;讨价还价
4.mushrooming:迅速增长的;快速增长
5.ironical:具有讽刺意味的;令人啼笑皆非的;反语的
6.preach:宣传;宣扬;宣讲;布道
7.hyper:精力过旺的;既兴奋又紧张的
8.trickle:涓涓细流;细流;涓流
9.dictate:命令;口述;支配;决定
10.compulsive:难以制止的;引人入胜的;难控制的
11.exclusively:唯一地;排他地;专有地
12.inherent:固有的;内在的
13.recess:休会;休庭;隐蔽处
14.sensational:轰动的;耸人听闻的;绝妙的;极好的