英文早读第97篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。
BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD.
810 KIEWIT PLAZA
OMAHA 31, NERBRASKA
巴菲特合伙基金有限公司
基维特广场810室
内布拉斯卡,奥马哈31区
January 20, 1966
1966年1月20日
Our Performance in 1965
我们在1965年的表现
Our War on Poverty was successful in 1965.
在1965年我们在和贫穷的战争上是胜利的。
Specially, we were 12,304,060 less poor at the end of the year.
尤其,在这一年末我们减少了1230万4060美金的贫困度。
Last year under a section in the annual letter entitled "Our Goal"( please particularly note it was not headed "Our Promise"), I stated we were trying to achieve "… An average advantage (relative to the Dow) of ten percentage points per annum for BPL before allocation to the general partner again with large amplitudes in the margin from perhaps 10 percentage points worse than the Dow in a bad year to 25 percentage points better when everything clicks."
上年度的年度信中一部分冠名为“我们的目标”(请尤其注意这不是标题“我们的承诺”),我降到我们正试图实现“…巴菲特合伙基金平均每年10个百分点优势(相比于道琼斯)在分润给GP前并伴随着大的振幅范围从或许在坏的年份落后道琼斯10个百分点至当一切都击中时领先25个百分点”。
My fallibility as a forecast was quickly demonstrated when the first year fell outside my parameters. We achieved our widest margin over the Dow in the history of BPL with an overall gain of 47.2% compared to an overall gain (including dividends which would have been received through ownership of the Dow) of 14.2% for the Dow. Naturally, no writer likes to be publicly humiliated by such a mistake. It is unlikely to be repeated.
我作为预测者的易错性很快被证实了当第一年就落在了我的范围之外。我们实现了巴菲特合伙基金历史上领先道琼斯最大的幅度,整体盈利47.2%相比于道琼斯的整体盈利14.2%(包括道琼斯持有者收到的分红)。自然的,没有作者喜欢公开被这样的错误羞辱。他似乎也是不能重复的。
The following summarizes the year-by-year performance of the Dow, the performance of the Partnership before allocation (one quarter of the excess over 6%) to the general partner, and the results for limited partners:
下面总结了道琼斯、合伙基金给GP分润前(超过6%部分的1/4)、给LP的结果的年度表现:
(1)Based on yearly changes in the value of the Dow plus dividends that would have been received through ownership of the Dow during that year. The table includes all complete years of partnership activity.
(1)基于道琼斯价值年度的变化加上在当年持有道琼斯会收到的分红。这个表格包括所有完整年份的基金活动。
(2)For 1957-61 consists of combined results of all predecessor limited partnerships operating throughout the entire year after all expenses, but before distributions to partners or allocations to the general partner.
(2)对1957-61年包括整合了之前合伙基金的运作结果,在扣除费用但在给合伙人和GP分润前。
(3)For 1957-61 computed on the basis of the preceding column of partnership results allowing for allocation to the general partner based upon the present partnership agreement, but before monthly withdrawals by limited partners.
(3)对1957-61年基于前面基金结果和基于现在合伙协议给GP分配后计算而来,但是实在LP月度提现前。
On a cumulative of compounded basis, the results are:
基于复利的计算结果如下:
After last year the question naturally arised, "What do we do for an encore?" A disadvantage of this business is that it does not possess momentum to any significant degree. If General Motors accounts for 54% of domestic new car registrations in 1965, it is a pretty safe belt that they are going to come fairly close to that figure in 1966 due to owner loyalties, dealer capabilities, productive capacity, consumer image, etc. Not so for BPL. We start from stratch each year with everything valued at market when the gun goes off. Partners in 1966, new or old, benefit to only a very limited extent from the efforts of 1964 and 1965. The success of past methods and ideas does not transfer forward to future ones.
从去年之后这个问题自然会问到:“怎么做可以再来一次?”这个业务的一个缺点是他不具有任何有力度的惯性。如果通用汽车在1965年国内新车注册上有54%的占有率,这是很安全的联系他们将在1966年相当接近这个数字因为拥有者的忠诚度、交易员的能力、生产量、消费者印象等待。但对巴菲特合伙基金不是这样。当开枪时我们以一切被市场估值来撕开每一年。在1966年的合伙人,新的或老的,仅仅能从1964年和1965年的努力中有微乎其微的获益。过去方法和注意的成功不会转化为未来的。
I continue to hope, on a longer-range basis, for the sort of achievement outlined in the "Our Goal" section of last year's letter (copies still available). However, those who believe 1965 results can be achieved with any frequency are probably attending weekly meetings of the Halley's Comet Observers Club. We are going to have loss years and are going to have years inferior to the Dow - no doubt about it. But I continue to believe we can achieve average performance superior to the Dow in the future. If my expectation regarding this should change, you will hear immediately.
我希望继续有,在大的范围内,这种在去年信中(复印件仍可以获得)的“我们的目标”之外的成果。然而,那些相信1965年的结果可以经常实现的或许正在参加“观察哈雷彗星俱乐部”的周会。我们将会有损失的年份并且将有年份落后于道琼斯——不要怀疑他。但是我仍然相信我们可以在未来取得平均领先道琼斯的表现。如果我关于此的预期变化了,你会立刻知道的。
1.poverty:贫穷;贫困;贫乏;短缺;劣质
2.fallibility:易错性;不可靠性
3.parameter:参数;范围;规范;决定因素
4.humiliate:羞辱;使丧失尊严
5.encore:安可;(观众喊的)再来一个;再唱一首;加演的节目
6.possess:具有;拥有;有;控制;支配
7.scratch:挠(痒处);划破;刮坏;勉强维持生活
8.momentum:势头;动量;动力;冲力;推进力