2021年5月24日
乐观者前行 Rational Optimism Is the Way Out
悲观者正确Pessimism is self-fulfilling
纳瓦尔： 您从该职业的其他成员那里获得的反馈往往会被打折。
Naval: Professions in which you get your feedback from other members of that profession tend to get corrupted.
当你看到记者写文章来打动其他记者，或者餐馆老板试图打动其他美食家和餐馆老板时，这通常是不实用的，也不是高质量的。
When you see a journalist writing articles to impress other journalists or a restaurant owner trying to impress other foodies and restaurant owners, it’s usually not practical or high-quality.
记者或餐馆老板可能会在某些精英圈子中获得赞誉，但这并不能反映现实。
The journalist or restaurant owner may receive accolades within certain elite circles, but that doesn’t reflect reality.
科学家或实验家从大自然母亲那里得到反馈，企业家从自由市场得到反馈，在自由市场中，人们用他们的金钱和时间投票，这些是更好的预测指标。
A scientist or an experimentalist gets feedback from Mother Nature, and an entrepreneur gets feedback from a free market in which people vote with their money and time. Those are much better predictors.
在现实世界中获得报酬的人往往是乐观的，在象牙塔中运作的人被激励成为悲观主义者。
People who get paid to operate in the real world tend to be optimistic. People who operate in ivory towers are incentivized to be pessimists.
布雷特： 要成为一名企业家，你需要对自己正在创造对他人有价值的东西这一事实持乐观态度。
Brett: To be an entrepreneur, you need to be optimistic about the fact that you’re creating something that other people are going to find value in.
持悲观哲学的人也往往有悲观的心理。
People who have a pessimistic philosophy tend to have a pessimistic psychology as well.
如果你一直在思考世界将以各种方式破坏和毁灭，那么这会对你对日常一切事物的看法产生影响——其他人、你的家人和朋友，因为你认为这个世界是被谴责的。
If you’re constantly thinking about all the ways in which the world is going to wreck and ruin, then this has a day-to-day impact on your outlook on everything—the rest of society, your family, and your friends—because you think this world is condemned.
你会感受到肩上的重担，这将体现在你向世界其他地方展示自己的方式上。
You’re going to feel that weight on your shoulders, and that’s going to come through in how you present yourself to the rest of the world.
我们在社交媒体上看到了很多这样的情况。企业家通常太忙，没有时间在社交媒体上花费大量时间。但科学家、学者和记者却因为对现实持悲观态度而对生活感到沮丧，这影响了他们对世界的主观体验。
We see a lot of this on social media. Entrepreneurs are typically too busy to spend a whole lot of time on social media, but you get scientists, academics and journalists who are depressed with life because they have a pessimistic view of reality. That impacts their subjective experience of the world.
另一方面，正在创造的人正在尝试将新的东西带到现实生活中。
On the other hand, people who are creating are trying to bring something new into existence.
纳瓦尔： 不幸的是，悲观主义是自我实现（悲观者正确）。
Naval: Unfortunately, pessimism is self-fulfilling.
这里我们采取的立场是：一切罪恶都是缺乏知识，乐观者会去开拓，这些都有数据和历史支持。
Here we take the stance that all evils are due to lack of knowledge. Rational optimism is the way out. The data supports it, and history supports it.
通过创造力，我们总能想出好的办法来改善我们和其他人的生活。
Through creativity, we can always come up with good explanations to improve our lives and everybody else’s lives.
所以保持乐观。
So stay optimistic.
马丽：悲观者正确、因为他们会找到蛛丝马迹证明自己正确，来自我实现。乐观者前行，因为乐观者看到问题会想办法、会开拓新路径去解决问题，创造更好、甚至全新的生活方式。不要被困难、问题、负面信息所障目，从更高维度、更宏观、更长远的视角，抽丝剥茧、迎刃而解。人生探索永无止境。
