America's next recession

美国下一次经济衰退

Not long ago recessions seemed to strike America roughly once a decade. But only two years after the first lockdowns, the business cycle is turning at a sickening speed and another one already seems to be on its way. If you are like most people, your memory of downturns will be dominated by the past two-the financial heart attack in 2007-09 and the pandemic-induced collapse in 2020. Both were severe and highly unusual.

不久前经济衰退冲击美国的频率还只是十年一遇。但是，首次疫情封锁后才过去两年，商业周期就飞速发生转变，另一轮经济衰退似乎就要到来。如果你和大多数人一样，那么你对经济衰退的记忆应该主要是最近的两次——2007-09年金融危机和2020年疫情引发的经济崩溃。这两次衰退都非常严重且极其反常。

By their standards, America's next recession will almost certainly be milder and more pedestrian. But because the world economy, asset markets and America's politics are all fragile, it may yet have nasty and unpredictable consequences.

按照这个标准，美国下一次经济衰退几乎肯定是更为温和平淡的。但是，由于世界经济、资产市场及美国政治都十分脆弱，这次衰退也可能会导致难以预测的恶劣后果。

There is no escaping the squeeze ahead for America's economy. Surging food and petrol prices are eating into people's spending. In April consumer prices were 8.3% higher than a year earlier. Even excluding food and energy prices, annual inflation is 6.2%. Supply-chain problems could flare up for as long as war rages in Ukraine and (...) sticks to its zero-covid policy.

美国经济面临紧缩，无可避免。食品价格和油价飙升，侵蚀着人们的购买力。4月份消费者价格比一年前高出8.3%。即使剔除掉食品和能源价格，年通胀率也高达6.2%。只要俄乌战事继续，(...)实行清零政策，供应链问题就会愈演愈烈。

The American labour market is red-hot, with nearly two job openings for every unemployed worker in March, the most since 1950, when data were first collected. A measure of wage growth by Goldman Sachs is at an all-time high of nearly 5.5%-a rate companies cannot bear unless they continue to raise prices fast.

美国劳动力市场过热，3月份每个失业者对应约两个职位空缺，这是自1950年开始收集相关数据以来的最高水平。根据高盛集团数据，工资增长率创下新高，逼近5.5%，除非快速提价，否则企业是无法承受这么高的工资增长率的。

The Fed is promising to pour water on the fire. Investors expect it to have raised interest rates by more than 2.5 percentage points by the end of 2022. The central bank is crossing its fingers, saying that it can hit 2% inflation target without causing a downturn. But history suggests that by acting to tame inflation it will cause the economy to shrink.

美联储承诺会给经济降温。投资者预测，到2022年底，美联储会把利率提高2.5个百分点以上。它希望能在不引发衰退的情况下达到2%的通胀目标。但历史显示，采取措施遏制通胀会导致经济收缩。

Since 1955, rates have risen as fast as they will this year during seven economic cycles. In six of them recession followed within a year and a half. The exception was in the mid-1990s, when inflation was low and the labour market was more balanced. On June 1st Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan Chase, America's largest bank, warned of an approaching economic "hurricane".

自1955年以来，美国经历过七个经济周期，加息速度和今年一样快。其中六个经济周期中，在加息后一年半之内发生了经济衰退。1990年代中期是一次例外，当时通胀率很低，而且劳动力市场更为平衡。6月1日，美国最大的银行摩根大通公司的老总杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）发出警告，经济“飓风”即将来临。

In fact, although a recession is likely, it should be a relatively shallow one. In the crisis of 2007-09 the financial system froze and in 2020 activity in entire sectors ground to a halt. Both downturns saw the sharpest initial drops in GDP since the second world war. This time will surely be different. In some ways America is resilient. Consumers are still flush with cash from the pandemic stimulus and companies have been enjoying bumper profits.

事实上，尽管很可能会出现衰退，但程度相对较弱。2007-09年危机中，整个金融体系冻结；2020年危机中，所有经济部门活动戛然而止。这两次衰退在初始阶段GDP都遭遇了自二战以来的最大跌幅。这一次肯定会有所不同。在某些方面美国经济表现坚挺。消费者手中仍握有大笔疫情纾困金，各企业也仍享受着丰厚利润。

The housing market is slowing as rates rise but, in contrast to the late 2000s, it is not about to bring down the country's banks, which are strong. And at least the Fed does not face the predicament it did in the 1980s. Back then, inflation had been above 5% for six and a half years and it had to raise rates to nearly 20%, causing unemployment of almost 11%. Today inflation has been above target for a little more than a year. It should be easier to purge.

虽然随着利率上升房产市场增速放缓，但美国银行目前实力强劲，因此不会像2000年代末一样，房市放缓导致银行破产。至少美联储没有陷入其在1980年代时面临的困境。当时，通胀率超过5%，持续6年半仍居高不下，美联储被迫将利率提高到了近20%的水平，导致失业率达到近11%。如今通胀率超过目标仅一年多一点，应该更容易压下来。

The trouble is that even a mild American recession would expose glaring fragilities. One is the commodity-price crisis in much of the world, the result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Countries from the Middle East to Asia are facing severe food shortages and soaring fuel bills. The euro zone is dealing with an especially sharp energy shock as it weans itself off Russian oil and gas. Around the world, household incomes are collapsing in real terms.

问题是，即使是轻度衰退也会暴露出一些明显弱点。第一，俄乌冲突导致全球大部分国家遭受大宗商品价格危机。从中东到亚洲，很多国家食品严重短缺、能源价格高企。欧元区在与俄罗斯石油和天然气脱钩的过程中，遭受着更为严峻的能源冲击。放眼全球，各国家庭收入按实际价值计算都在暴跌。

An American recession would land another blow on vulnerable parts of the global economy by curbing demand for their exports. Tighter monetary policy at the Fed and the resulting strength of the dollar would also compound what has already been the biggest sell off in emerging-market bonds since 1994. The IMF says that about 60% of poor countries are suffering debt distress, or are at high risk of it.

美国经济衰退，会抑制全球经济中脆弱经济体的出口需求，对其造成又一打击。新兴市场债券已遭遇了自1994年以来最严重的一波抛售潮，美联储收紧货币政策，令美元走强，更是雪上加霜。国际货币基金组织（IMF）称，约60%的国家面临债务压力，或极有可能陷入债务困境。

Another weakness lies closer to home, on Wall Street. So far in 2022 the American stockmarket has fallen by 15%-comparable to the decline during the mild recession that started in 1991. The sell-off has been orderly and America's banks are stuffed with capital. But after over a decade of cheap money, no one can be sure how stratospheric asset prices will be affected by the combination of higher interest rates and a Fed-induced recession. Stocks are pricey relative to long-run profits.

弱点之二在华尔街。2022年迄今为止美国股市已下跌15%-与1991年开始的轻度衰退期间股市跌幅相当。股票抛盘井然有序，美国银行资金充裕。但是，过去十年中人们一直享受着廉价货币政策，因此现在没人知道，高利率加上美联储引发的经济衰退，会如何影响天价的资产价格。相对于长期利润而言，股价是偏高的。

A system of market-based lending has sprung up since 2007-09 that has yet to be severely tested. It includes investment funds that act like banks, vast derivatives clearing-houses and high-speed bond traders. If something goes wrong, the Fed will find it hard to bail out Wall Street yet again, because it will at the same time be forcing Main Street to cope with higher rates and job losses.

自2007-09年以来兴起的以市场为基础的借贷体系尚未经受过严峻考验。该体系包括类似银行的投资基金， 庞大的衍生品清算机构和高速债券交易商。如果出现任何问题，美联储将很难再次出手挽救”华尔街“（金融市场），因为这就表示，与此同时它要迫使“主街“（指实体经济）应对高利率与高失业率的难题。

A final fragility is America's hyper-partisan politics. A recession would probably strike by the end of 2024, colliding with campaigning for the presidential election. If the economy is shrinking, the race for the White House in 2024 is likely to be even more toxic than expected.

最后一个软肋是美国政治高度分裂。经济衰退可能会出现在2024年底，刚好撞上美国总统竞选活动。如果经济萎缩，2024年的总统竞选很可能会比与预期更糟糕。

Politics could distort the government's response to a recession. The Fed may be dragged into a venomous political battle. After receiving handouts amounting to 26% of GDP in the pandemic, voters and firms may expect the state to protect them from hardship this time, too. Yet the Republicans, who will probably control Congress after mid-term elections in November, would be most unlikely to spend money to see off a downturn if that also risked saving President Joe Biden.

政治会扭曲政府如何应对经济衰退。美联储或会卷入一场恶毒的政治斗争之中。选民和企业在新冠疫情中获得了相当于GDP 26%的纾困金，可能也会期待政府保护他们免受衰退冲击。但是，共和党或会在11月的中期选举后控制国会，他们极不可能会为了摆脱经济衰退而采取撒钱手段，如果撒钱还能助总统拜登挽救败局的话，共和党更不会这么做。

If America's economy does shrink in the next year or two, it could even alter the country's long-term direction. The best response to a downturn during which inflation remained high would be pro-growth reforms, such as lower tariffs and more competition. Instead, recession may fuel populism and protectionism and even return Donald Trump to the presidency. Three of the past four recessions coincided with presidential elections or shortly preceded them. Each time the party controlling the White House lost power.

如果美国经济在未来一或两年内走向萎缩，这甚至会改变国家的长期走向。通胀高企期间出现经济衰退，最好的应对措施是实施改革促进增长，比如降低关税、增加竞争等。但是，经济衰退会助长民粹主义和保护主义，甚至使特朗普再次当选总统。过去四次经济衰退中，有三次恰恰赶上总统大选，或在总统大选不久前发生。每一次，执掌白宫的党派都落选下台。

Measured by the technocratic yardstick of lost GDP, the next recession could be mild. But not when judged by its impact on the emerging world, asset markets and American politics. Do not underestimate the perils that lie ahead.

按照GDP损失的技术性标准来衡量，下一次经济衰退在程度上是温和的。但如果按照其对新兴世界、资产市场和美国政治的影响来看，却并不温和。前方危机四伏，我们不可掉以轻心。