本期原文选自The Economist 2017-01-21的文章The 45th president，释义来自牛津高阶七版、灵格斯词典、有道词典、互动百科等资源。译文仅供参考。如果您也在学习The Economist，欢迎订阅我的文集The Economist，一起学习交流。

The 45th president

第45届美国总统

What is Donald Trump likely to achieve in power?

唐纳德•特朗普当政有何作为？

MUCH of the time, argues David Runciman, a British academic, politics matters little to most people. Then, suddenly, it matters all too much. Donald Trump’s term as America’s 45th president, which is due to【1】 begin with the inauguration【2】 on January 20th, stands to be one of those moments.

英国学者大卫•朗西曼（David Runciman）说过，很多时候，政治对多数人来说没多大关系。然而，突然之间，政治又变得太重要了。1月20日就职典礼之时，唐纳德•特朗普作为第45届美国总统开始任期，这将见证一个非比寻常的时刻。

【1】due to do sth, due for sth 预计，预期

【2】inauguration就职典礼

It is extraordinary how little American voters and the world at large feel they know about what Mr Trump intends. Those who back him are awaiting【3】 the biggest shake-up【4】 in Washington, DC, in half a century—though their optimism is an act of faith. Those who oppose him are convinced there will be chaos and ruin on an epoch-changing scale—though their despair is guesswork【5】. All that just about everyone can agree on is that Mr Trump promises to be an entirely new sort of American president. The question is, what sort?

美国选民甚至全世界都很难推敲特朗普的心思，这真是令人称奇。他的支持者在等待半世纪以来华盛顿最大规模的一场洗牌，而他们的乐观不过是出于信念。他的反对者则相信即将出现颠覆时代的混乱和毁灭，而他们的绝望也只是源于猜想。大概每个人都认同的一点是，特朗普一定是标新立异的美国总统。问题在于他是什么样的总统？

【3】await等待

【4】shake-up重大调整

【5】guesswork猜想，猜测

Inside the West Wig【6】

内窥白宫

You may be tempted to conclude that it is simply too soon to tell. But there is enough information—from the campaign, the months since his victory and his life as a property developer and entertainer—to take a view of what kind of person Mr Trump is and how he means to fill the office first occupied by George Washington. There is also evidence from the team he has picked, which includes a mix of wealthy businessmen, generals and Republican activists (see Briefing).

你可能会说现在做出判断还为时尚早。但从总统竞选活动到胜选后数月的情况以及特朗普身为地产开发商和娱乐大亨的个人生涯来看，现在已有足够信息可以看出他是什么样的人、他打算在乔治•华盛顿曾入驻的办公室怎样执政。他自己选出的团队由富商、军事将领与共和党激进分子组成，这也能说明点什么。

【6】West Wig白宫西厢办公室，是位于白宫西翼的一系列办公室群。The West Wing《白宫风云》，又译《白宫群英》），是一部政治题材的电视剧。

For sure, Mr Trump is changeable. He will tell the New York Times that climate change is man-made in one breath and promise coal country that he will reopen its mines in the next. But that does not mean, as some suggest, that you must always shut out 【7】what the president says and wait to see what he does.

特朗普确实很善变。他刚对《纽约时报》说气候变化是人为造成的，转眼就向煤炭大国许诺要重新启动美国煤炭生产。但这并不意味着你要像有些人提议的那样别把他说的话当真，静观其行。

【7】shut out 挡住，遮住

When a president speaks, no easy distinction is to be made between word and deed. When Mr Trump says that NATO is obsolete, as he did to two European journalists last week, he makes its obsolescence more likely, even if he takes no action. Moreover, Mr Trump has long held certain beliefs and attitudes that sketch out the lines of a possible presidency. They suggest that the almost boundless Trumpian optimism on display【8】 among American business people deserves to be tempered by fears about trade protection and geopolitics, as well as questions about how Mr Trump will run his administration.

总统之言，言行难辨。上周特朗普对欧洲记者说北约已经过时。即使他没有就此采取任何行动，也很可能造成北约过时。而且，特朗普一直持有的观点和态度已经勾勒出在其可能任职期间的大致路线。由此看来，美国商人所表现出的特朗普式无限乐观主义应该有所收敛，人们对贸易保护主义和地缘政治的恐惧以及特朗普将如何执政的问题都该让这种乐观降温。

【8】on display本义是陈列、展出，这里是指美国商人表现出漫无边际的特朗普式乐观主义

Start with the optimism. Since November’s election the S&P500 index【9】 is up by 6%, to reach record highs. Surveys show that business confidence has soared. Both reflect hopes that Mr Trump will cut corporate taxes【10】, leading companies to bring foreign profits back home. A boom in domestic spending should follow which, combined with investment in infrastructure and a programme of deregulation【11】, will lift the economy and boost wages.

先从乐观主义说起。自11月竞选以来，美国标准普尔500指数增长6%，达到了历史高点。调查结果显示，企业信心高涨。两者表明人们对特朗普寄予希望，认为他会减轻公司税，把公司的国外所得利润引入国内。国内财政支出应随之增加，投资基础设施建设，实施宽松管制计划，从而提振经济，拉动工资上涨。

【9】S&P500 index标准普尔500指数，是记录美国500家上市公司的一个股票指数

【10】corporate tax公司税

【11】deregulation撤销管制

Done well, tax reform would confer lasting benefits (see Free exchange), as would a thoughtful and carefully designed programme of infrastructure investment and deregulation. But if such programmes are poorly executed, there is the risk of a sugar-rush【12】 as capital chases opportunities that do little to enhance the productive potential of the economy.

税务改革如果落到实处，就会像设计周密严谨的基础设施投资与宽松管制计划一样带来持久益处。然而，如果此类计划执行不力，就可能出现“三分钟热度”的风险，因为资本所追逐的机会很难增强经济的生产潜力。

【12】sugar-rush 食糖后兴奋感，又称为“Sugar High”，意为“三分钟热度”

That is not the only danger. If prices start to rise faster, pressure will mount【13】 on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. The dollar will soar and countries that have amassed【14】 large dollar debts, many of them emerging markets, may well buckle【15】. One way or another, any resulting instability will blow back into America. If the Trump administration reacts to widening trade deficits with extra tariffs and non-tariff barriers, then the instability will only be exacerbated. Should Mr Trump right from the start set out to engage foreign exporters from countries such as China, Germany and Mexico in a conflict over trade, he would do grave harm to the global regime that America itself created after the second world war.

危险还不止于此。如果物价上涨变快，就会增大美联储加息压力。美元飞涨，持有大量美元债务的国家就会被压垮，而这些国家很多都是新兴市场。不管怎样，由此造成的不稳定局面都会以某种方式反击美国。如果特朗普政府以额外关税和非关税壁垒应对不断扩大的贸易赤字，只会让这种不稳定局面雪上加霜。如果特朗普一开始就打算让中国、德国和墨西哥等外国进口商卷入贸易冲突之中，美国在二战后创建的全球体制就会受到重创。

【13】mount 逐步增加

【14】amass 积聚，积累

【15】buckle（被）压垮

Just as Mr Trump underestimates the fragility of the global economic system, so too does he misread geopolitics. Even before taking office, Mr Trump has hacked away at the decades-old, largely bipartisan cloth of American foreign policy. He has casually disparaged【16】 the value of the European Union, which his predecessors always nurtured as a source of stability. He has compared Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor and the closest of allies, unfavourably to Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president and an old foe. He has savaged【17】 Mexico, whose prosperity and goodwill matter greatly to America’s southern states. And, most recklessly, he has begun to pull apart America’s carefully stitched dealings【18】 with the rising superpower, China—imperilling the most important bilateral relationship of all.

特朗普不仅低估了全球经济体系的脆弱性，还误读了地缘政治。特朗普甚至在就职之前就已撕开几十年来主要由两党共同织就的美国外交政策关系网。美国历任总统一直将欧盟视为稳定之源，悉心呵护，特朗普却随意贬低欧盟的价值。德国总理默克尔是美国最亲近的盟友，俄罗斯总统普京是美国的宿敌，特朗普却将两人相提并论，这很不适宜。墨西哥的繁荣和友好对美国南部各州非常重要，他却猛烈抨击墨西哥。最为鲁莽的是，特朗普开始撕裂美国悉心建立的与崛起超级大国中国的往来关系，使得这一最重要的双边关系陷入危险境地。

【16】disparage蔑视，贬低

【17】savage猛烈抨击

【18】dealings（商业）往来

The idea running through Mr Trump’s diplomacy is that relations between states follow the art of the deal. Mr Trump acts as if he can get what he wants from sovereign states by picking fights【19】 that he is then willing to settle—at a price, naturally. His mistake is to think that countries are like businesses. In fact, America cannot walk away from China in search of another superpower to deal with over the South China Sea. Doubts that have been sown cannot be uprooted【20】, as if the game had all along been a harmless exercise in price discovery【21】. Alliances that take decades to build can be weakened in months.

贯穿特朗普外交政策的思想是国家之间的关系遵循交易的艺术。特朗普的行事方式是，比如通过挑起事端，然后他乐于去解决争端，自然就能以一定价格获得想要的东西。他的错误在于把国家当成公司看待。事实上，美国无法绕开中国，寻找另一超级大国解决中国南海问题。怀疑的种子一旦播下，就难以根除，这就好比在价格发现过程中，博弈无害，贯穿始终。历经几十年建立的盟国关系可能在数月之间削弱。

【19】picking a fight/quarrel (with sb)挑衅，找麻烦

【20】uproot根除，连根拔除

【21】price discovery价格发现，是指买卖双方在给定的时间和地方对一种商品的质量和数量达成交易价格的过程

Dealings between sovereign states tend towards anarchy【22】—because, ultimately, there is no global government to impose order and no means of coercion【23】 but war. For as long as Mr Trump is unravelling【24】 the order that America created, and from which it gains so much, he is getting his country a terrible deal.

最终没有一个全球政府维持秩序，没有威慑，只有战争，那么主权国家之间的关系就会陷入混乱。一旦特朗普摒弃由美国建立、让美国受益颇多的秩序，那他真是为美国揽了一桩糟糕的生意。

【22】anarchy混乱，无政府状态

【23】coercion强迫，胁迫

【24】unravel瓦解，解体，崩溃

Hair Force One【25】

总统专机空军一号

So troubling is this prospect that it raises one further question. How will Mr Trump’s White House work? On the one hand you have party stalwarts【26】, including the vice-president, Mike Pence; the chief of staff【27】, Reince Priebus; and congressional Republicans【28】, led by Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell. On the other are the agitators—particularly Steve Bannon, Peter Navarro and Michael Flynn. The titanic struggle between normal politics【29】 and insurgency, mediated by Mr Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, will determine just how revolutionary this presidency is.

前景如此令人担忧，又引发另一个问题。特朗普的白宫如何运作？一方面，他拥有坚定的共和党支持者，包括副总统迈克•彭斯、白宫幕僚长普利•巴斯，以及Paul Ryan、Mitch McConnell等人为首的共和党国会议员。另一方面，也不乏煽动者，尤其是Steve Bannon、Peter Navarro和Michael Flynn。常态政治与反叛之间的斗争非常猛烈，特朗普的女儿伊万卡和女婿库斯纳从中调停，这场斗争将决定其总统任期会带来多大的变革。

【25】Hair Force One 谐音来自Air Force One，美国总统的专机空军一号

【26】stalwart忠诚拥护者，坚定分子

【27】chief of staff幕僚长；White House Chief of Staff白宫幕僚长，又译为白宫办公厅主任，是美国总统办事机构的最高级别官员，亦为美利坚合众国总统的高级助理，常被称为"华盛顿第二最具权力的人"

【28】congressional Republicans共和党国会议员

【29】normal politics 常态政治，与宪法政治（constitutional politics）相对。

“宪法政治”（constitutional politics）的意义，依据最近一本以此为书名的论文集而言，指涉的是“对于制定宪法、维系宪法及审议宪法变迁的规范性、概念性及经验性的研究，因其有别于其他不同政治活动而被称之为宪法政治”。与宪法政治相对的是“常态政治”（normal politics）。在民主政治之中，“何人在何时用何法得到何物？”（Who gets what, when, how?）这个常态性的权力、资源分配及互动过程，当然预设着参与者基本上接受一组能够让此种活动公平地持续进行之基本规范，也就是一个国家的宪政体制。（该释义来自网页http://www.gongfa.com/html/gongfazhuanti/taiwanwenti/20121028/2036.html）

As Mr Trump assumes power, the world is on edge【30】. From the Oval Office【31】, presidents can do a modest amount of good. Sadly, they can also do immense harm.

特朗普执政，令全世界紧张。总统在白宫办公室任职，可以为人民谋福祉，但也可能使人民遭殃。

【30】be on edge紧张不安

【31】Oval Office位于白宫西厢的椭圆形办公室，是美国总统的正式办公室

*注：本文仅供学习交流之用，不代表作者观点。