基本面影响:
1. 咖啡人均摄取量与经济水平无关,而是国家文化,functional demand is too small
2. 价格歧视vs会员制度:会员价格敏感,新客由discounts驱动,价格下降到一定阶段并无法提升单店销售量,开店历史越久并没表现出更高的asp(没有品牌效应),店员与顾客没有交互,无人零售定价有问题。Luckin is not able to increase price and maintain sales volume simultaneously due to its highly price sensitive customer base.
本质:会员price sensitive + lack loyalty
3. UE无法为正(quotation)
1) Luckin is not able to increase price and maintain sales volume simultaneously due to its highly price sensitive customer base.
2) Management excludes delivery expenses/subsidies from store unit economics. However, delivery subsidy is directly resulted from selling and distributing products and can be attributed to each individual store.
3) Meanwhile, EBITDA is still negative, i.e. the average store was operating on a negative cash flow basis.
4) 营销费用部分分摊到总部
4. 违反商务部特许经营条例,瑞幸起得名称不同但是实质是一样的
Regulation on the Administration of Commercial Franchises, regulation no.7;《商业特许经营管理条例》第七条明确规定“特许人从事特许经营活动应当拥有至少2个直营店,并且经营时间超过1年”