主席的交椅不好坐

An uncomfortable chair
主席的交椅不好坐
Kevin Warsh's first day in his new job on May 22nd was instructive. For the first time in nearly 40 years, the chairman of the Federal Reserve was sworn in at the White House-an odd setting for the head of an institution that prides itself on political distance.
凯文·沃什5月22日走马上任的第一天颇具启发性。近40年来，美联储主席首次在白宫宣誓就职，对于以保持政治距离为荣的美联储而言，这个地点有些奇怪。
Donald Trump nevertheless assured his hand-picked inflation dove that he should be "totally" independent. Hours later, at a rally in New York, the president sketched the boundaries of that independence. "I had a rotten head of the Fed, now I have a great head of the Fed," he boasted, before predicting that interest rates would come down "very quickly".
尽管如此，唐纳德·特朗普向他亲自挑选的这位通胀鸽派主席保证，他应该“完全”保持独立。数小时后，在纽约的一场集会上，特朗普总统勾勒出了这种独立性的边界。“我之前有一个很糟糕的美联储主席，现在我有一个很棒的美联储主席。”他吹嘘道，随后预测利率将“非常迅速地”下降。
Yet the path to lower rates has narrowed since he nominated Mr Warsh in January. As war in Iran pushed up energy prices, America's consumer-price index (CPI) rose at an annualised pace of 7.3% in the three months to April. Pricier oil is feeding into other costs, from plastics to transport, inflating prices far from the pump.
然而，自从他在1月份提名沃什，通往降息的道路就已经变窄。随着伊朗战争推高了能源价格，美国的消费者价格指数（CPI）在截至4月的三个月里年化增速为7.3%。油价上涨正传递到从塑料制品到交通运输的其他成本中，推高了石油以外的各类商品价格。
Sticky inflation is starting to affect expectations. After more than five years of above-target inflation, faith in a swift return to normal takes some optimism. In May respondents to the University of Michigan's consumer survey expected inflation of 3.9% five years ahead, almost a percentage point higher than before Mr Trump took office in January 2025.
粘性通胀正在开始影响人们的预期。在经历了超过五年的高于目标的通货膨胀后，人们需要一些乐观精神才能相信通胀可以迅速回归常态。5月份，密歇根大学消费者调查的受访者预计未来五年的通胀率为3.9%，这比2025年1月特朗普上任前的通胀率高出近一个百分点。
Markets are drawing similar conclusions. At the start of the year investors expected at least one or two rate cuts this year. They now price in a rate rise instead, and roughly a one-in-four chance of two or more.
市场正在得出类似的结论。在年初，投资者预计今年至少会有一到两次降息。他们现在转而在定价时考虑利率将会上升，并且大约有四分之一的概率会出现两次或更多次加息。
Treasury yields have climbed, too. Some analysts detect a "Warsh premium" in long-dated bonds, compensation for the risk that the chairman bends to Mr Trump and lets inflation run. Cut too soon, and bond vigilantes may awaken.
国债收益率也有所上升。一些分析师在长期债券中发现了“沃什溢价”，这是对沃什听从特朗普并放任通胀风险的一种补偿。过早降息，则债券市场警戒者可能被唤醒。
Mr Warsh's colleagues may prove as troublesome. They are already turning hawkish. In April three of them dissented in favour of dropping the Fed's "easing bias", the language in its statement hinting that the next move is likelier to be a cut than a rise.
沃什的同僚们也是一个麻烦。他们已经开始变得鹰派了。在四月，其中三位持异议，主张放弃美联储的“宽松倾向”，其声明中的这个措辞暗示，下次利率调整更可能是降息而非加息。
Mr Warsh can afford to wait a bit. But the ability to blame rising prices on a brief war could vanish by September, weeks before America's midterm elections. He would then be squeezed between a committee eyeing tighter money, markets ready to punish dovishness and a president demanding rate cuts. Mr Warsh must be hoping that at least his new chair is comfy, because his position certainly isn't.
沃什现在还可以稍等片刻。但是到了9月，他就不能再将物价上涨归咎于一场短暂的战争了，那时距离美国中期选举仅剩数周。那时他将遭遇三面夹击：一边是委员会要求收紧货币政策，一边是市场准备惩罚鸽派立场，还有一边是总统要求降息。沃什一定希望至少他的新办公椅是舒适的，因为这个主席当起来绝对不舒服。